Golden Touch Craps
Dice Pilots Betting System First Bet Size
By Jerry "Stickman"
I just read your article about Dice Pilots system.
Why should his first bet be so large compared to what his normal bets are? Risking $6,400 then going down to $110 doesn't make sense to me.
What is your opinion?
See the original article here: http://stickman.casinocitytimes.com/articles/45777.html
Your point is a good one. Putting a lot of money at risk can be devastating to your bankroll should you experience some quick 7-outs.
I believe what Dice Pilot is trying to do is cash in on the fact that he is experiencing many decent length hands. He is trying to make one hit with a lot of money in play and once that happens reduce his risk for when the 7 ultimately shows. His logic is something like this.
"I normally have hands of at least 10 or more rolls. I should hit at least one box number before seven-ing out. So, I should bet big early-on to collect on one of the box numbers I hit. Then I reduce my bets to a more comfortable level. My bankroll can handle a few quick 7-outs".
Dice Pilot also had a very high SRR (Sevens to Rolls Ratio) of about 10 which means he is able to reduce the appearance of the 7 from one in six to one in ten. This translates into a very good edge. Because he has an edge, the more money he puts on the table, the more money he will make. I can only go along with his assertion that his bankroll can handle the quick seven-outs that will inevitably happen.
Taking all that into account, he is definitely getting more money on the table, so if his bankroll can handle the fluctuations caused by the roughly 60-to-1 spread on the first bet, this system should make him more money than starting at $110. Also, as the table showed, the earlier he starts betting the more he makes.
My personal comfort level while plying at the table will not allow me to play this system, however. With such a large disparity between the big bet and the normal level of play, I would not be comfortable. I prefer to just start at the $110 level and progress from there but that is me. Dice Pilot answers only to Dice Pilot and if he can handle the greater volatility of his system, he will ultimately make more money. And after all Joyce, that is why we are doing what we do, isnt it?
May all your wins be swift and large and all your losses be slow and tiny.