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Playing a "Hopping 7’s" Progression with a controlled shooter

By Jerry "Stickman"

Hi Stickman,

I have read your articles and enjoy them. I have a few questions about betting that I hoped you would answer. Which are better bets or does it depend on the SRR?  Assume $10 table min. 5Xs  odds.

Example 1.  $10 pass line with $20 odds when the 5 and 9 are points place 6 & 8 for $30 each and buy the 4 & 10 for $20 each. (Are there different amounts to bet considering the point number specifically the odds amount?)

Example 2. $10 pl with $50 odds (max) place 6 & 8 for $30 each and only buy the 4 or the 10 initially for $20.

Are max odds always a better bet and placing the 6 & 8 before buying the 4 and/or 10?

Finally, if the 4 or 10 is bought for $20 once it hits do you collect $35 and press the bet to $25 or what pressing/collecting method is suggested.

Thanks,
Bruce


Bruce,

These are very good questions.

Deciding which bets to make tends to be a fairly personal choice. Do you want to get the absolute best return from every dollar you bet at the table – even if it is at the expense of losing some control over your bets? Or would you rather have a reasonable chance of getting several hits on your bets but still keep the house edge low (or even have an edge if you are able to control your dice throw)? With pass/come bets, the base portion of the bet is where the house gets their edge as the payback is even money. Any odds placed have no house edge (or player edge for that matter). So if you bet $10 on the line, the house edge is 14 cents. No matter how much you add in odds, the house will take 15 cents on average. Adding odds will reduce the house edge percentage but increase volatility as you will win or lose more on each decision. When betting a $10 pass or come bet, any multiple of $10 as odds will work regardless of the point. If the point is 6 or 8, each $10 returns $12 on a win. If the point is 5 or 9, each $10 returns $15 on a win. Each $10 in odds for a point of 4 or 10 returns $20.

From a purely mathematical standpoint pass/come bets with max odds is the best choice. A pass or come bet with 5 times odds has a house edge of a mere one-third of one-percent (.33%). Buying the 4 and/or 10 for $25 or$ 30 with a $1 vig on wins only actually has a better house edge (for the player) than placing the 6 and/or 8 (1.33%/1.11% respectively vs. 1.52%). If you were to buy the 4 and 10 for $30 each, the house edge would be about 80 cents. The house edge on $60 placed on the 6/8 is about 91 cents – almost three times a $10 pass/come with $50 in odds. However, the 4 and 10 hit much less often than the 6 and 8.

To make all things equal, we can look at the house edge on a "per roll" basis. To calculate the per roll edge we need to know the "hit frequency" of each bet. By dividing the house edge by the hit frequency we have the per roll edge. The table below summarizes this information for the bets we are examining.

Bet

Frequency (Rolls/Hit)

Edge Per Bet

Edge Per Roll

Pass/Come – No Odds

3.38

1.41%

.42%

Pass/Come – 5X Odds

3.38

0.33%

.10%

Place 6/8

3.27

1.52%

.46%

Buy 4/10 ($30 each)

4.00

1.11%

.28%

 

On a per-roll basis you are better off betting pass/come with five-times odds from a strictly math point of view. Next best is buying the 4 or 10 for $30 with a $1 vig collected on wins only. If you buy the 4 or 10 for $20 with a $1 vig only on wins (or $100 with a $5 vig on wins only) the house edge goes to 1.67% per bet and .42% per roll making it slightly better than placing the 6/8 and considerably worse than pass/come with 5 times odds.

Keep in mind that any of these bets have a relatively low house edge, so if you like to have the ability to change your bets or call them off and on, there is nothing wrong with any of the bets you mention. As long as you make only "good" bets, you should do well.

As you improve SRR, the edge will start to change in your favor. If all you know is your SRR, your betting patterns should not change. If you are happy betting just the pass line with five times odds, continue doing that. If you prefer buying the 4 and 10, continue doing that. Everything will be in the same proportion – you will just win more (or lose less).

If you really want to maximize the advantage you have with a controlled throw, you should record your throws in Smart Craps. This program will do several things for you. It will tell you if you have an edge (by passing the various tests). It will tell you what your edge is for any bet and it will tell you the best set for each bet. That means you will be able to maximize your edge on certain bets (identified by Smart Craps). Armed with this information you can determine what is best for you, personally. Your edge can be substantially higher if you tune your set with your own personal throwing information. This is what I recommend for you Bruce. Get Smart Craps if you have not already done so. Record your throws to verify you have an edge. Once you have verified your edge by passing the tests provided, use the set recommended by Smart Craps to maximize your profits from the casino.

All the best in your casino and life pursuits

Jerry "Stickman"




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