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A Look At Craps Betting Progressions | Press And Pull, Up A Unit And Other Progressions



What is the "Best" Progression for You? (Part Two)

Last time I wrote about two betting progressions that very simple to use but still very powerful. This time I will go into more detail on these progressions.

The two progressions mentioned last time are the press-and-pull (or the pull-and-press variant) and the up-a-unit. The press-and-pull progression alternates between pressing the place bet when the number hits and pulling the profits when it hits. The up-a-unit progression adds one unit to the place number each time it hits. In any of these progressions, each number that you place works independently of other numbers. You only take the next step of the progression on the number that hits.

Lets look at some detailed information for each of these progressions.

First we will look at the numbers for the six and eight with a betting unit size of $10, however, the actual bet on the six and eight must be a multiple of $6.

Unit Size

10

Up a unit

Pull and Press

Press and Pull

Hit #

 

Bet

Win

Total

Bet

Win

Total

Bet

Win

Total

1

12

2

2

12

14

14

12

2

2

2

24

16

18

12

2

16

24

28

30

3

36

30

48

24

28

44

24

4

34

4

48

44

92

24

4

48

48

56

90

5

60

58

150

48

56

104

48

8

98

6

72

72

222

48

8

112

96

112

210

7

84

86

308

96

112

224

96

16

226

8

96

100

408

96

16

240

192

224

450

9

108

114

522

192

224

464

192

32

482

10

120

128

650

192

32

496

384

448

930

11

132

142

792

384

448

944

384

64

994

12

144

156

948

384

64

1008

768

896

1890

13

156

170

1118

768

896

1902

768

126

2018

The strategies are arranged from least aggressive to most aggressive. The columns upon which to focus are the "Total" columns. Notice that for the first few hits the less aggressive strategies outperform the more aggressive strategies. As you rack up more hits, however, the more aggressive your strategy, the better you do.

 

Now lets look at the results of these strategies being applied to the four and ten. Using the same $10 betting unit size and assuming you are playing in certain casinos in Tunica or Las Vegas that allow you to buy the four and ten for a $1 vig from $10 to $30, the results are as follows.

Unit Size

10

Up a unit

Pull and Press

Press and Pull

Hit #

 

Bet

Win

Total

Bet

Win

Total

Bet

Win

Total

1

10

9

9

10

19

19

10

9

9

2

20

29

38

10

9

28

20

39

48

3

30

49

87

20

39

67

20

19

67

4

40

68

155

20

19

86

40

78

145

5

50

88

243

40

78

164

40

38

183

6

60

107

350

40

38

202

80

156

339

7

70

127

477

80

156

358

80

76

415

8

80

146

623

80

76

434

160

312

727

9

90

166

789

160

312

746

160

152

879

10

100

185

974

160

152

898

320

624

1503

11

110

205

1179

320

624

1522

320

304

1807

12

120

224

1403

320

304

1826

640

1248

3055

13

130

244

1647

640

1248

3074

640

608

3663

Notice in the total columns that the less aggressive strategies still perform better with fewer hits, and even with the reduced house edge of just over 1%, the number of hits before one strategy is favored over another does not change. It still takes eleven hits for the pull-and-press strategy to outperform up-a-unit and it still takes eight hits for press-and-pull to outperform up-a-unit.

 

Lets see how the five and nine fare again a $10 betting unit.

Unit Size

10

Up a unit

Pull and Press

Press and Pull

>Hit #

 

Bet

Win

Total

Bet

Win

Total

Bet

Win

Total

1

10

4

4

10

14

14

10

4

4

2

20

18

22

10

4

18

20

28

32

3

30

32

54

20

28

46

20

8

40

4

40

46

100

20

8

54

40

56

96

5

50

60

160

40

56

110

40

16

112

6

60

74

234

40

16

126

80

112

224

7

70

88

322

80

112

238

80

32

256

8

80

102

424

80

32

270

160

224

480

9

90

116

540

160

224

494

160

64

544

10

100

130

670

160

64

558

320

448

992

11

110

144

814

320

448

1006

320

128

1120

12

120

158

972

320

128

1134

640

896

2016

13

130

172

1144

640

896

2030

640

256

2272

Even with a 4% house edge, it takes eleven hits for pull-and-press to outperform up-a-unit and eight hits for press-and-pull to outperform up-a-unit.

So what is the moral of this little tour of selected statistics? Simply this sometimes the simplest can be the most powerful. Comparing the results of the simplest progression to the more common and slightly more complicated schemes proves that except for very uncommon hot streaks, you are able to put more of the casinos money in your pocket (or give less of your money to the casinos). Ask yourself how often do I hit one specific number more than eight times in a given roll? Unless you can answer that question with a reasonable amount, the KISS (Keep It Simple Stupid) principle seems to also apply to progression betting in craps.

Next time we will explore some more complex and aggressive progression strategies. Until then, remember: if you can't be kind, at least have the decency to be vague.

 

 

Stickman







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