Golden Touch Craps
Here is a set of posts I wrote on the private members-only area of the GTC website. They continue the discussion of the 5-count along with some new themes that are introduced. Each subject can be viewed independently. But when combined together they form a three part series.
They are slightly technical in nature as they relate to the math of the game and the technique of controlled shooting. Yet, if one does not understand the precise subject matter offered, the arguments displayed will still be clear to the layman.
The first article is a response to the subject of "Charting." Charting is a concept some supposed "experts" fallaciously think can be applied to the game of craps. They think they can predict which numbers are likely to be thrown or when a table is going to be hot based on what numbers have been thrown in the past. I refer to this first article as "the law of large numbers" I am presenting in this three part series.
The second article is a response to an individual who tried to say that one of the methods of play (the 5-Count) recommended by Golden Touch Craps (the organization teaching controlled shooting) is a form of charting. I refer to this as "the 5-count is not a charting method" in the article I am presenting in this three part series.
In the third article I bring together some of the concepts presented in the first two posts. It references an interesting article written by mathematician, Dr. Don Catlin. In it he discusses some of the research he has done on these topics. I use his article to make the point of how my articles concur with what Dr. Catlin has presented in his article.
Part One: The law of large numbers
I have tried to keep an open mind on this topic. But the more I read from the proponents of it the more concerned I get. I will attempt to answer the question of why charting does not work in craps and address some other issues as well.
The law of large numbers is a valid mathematical theorem that was first proven by the mathematician Bernoulli. In fact that is why Casinos are able to make money the way they do.
In probability theory, several laws of large numbers say that the average of a sequence of random variables with a common distribution converges to their common expectation, in the limit as the size of the sequence goes to infinity. Notice the expression "in the limit as the size of the sequence goes to infinity".
Casinos can use this to their advantage because the number of decisions where the house has an edge that occur over time approaches infinity. There is no way that any individual player can experience this in a lifetime of playing, let alone in any given session.
I would suspect that the number of decisions a casino experiences over one week would be far greater than that experienced by any gambler over his entire lifetime. Despite the fact that casinos have to make money in the long term, I am sure there are weeks when even casinos may have net losses.
If we do in fact know that over a certain large number of roll that a certain number must appear so many times (statistically) then why not believe that a certain number is rolling more often or less often then statistically proven to?
Because you have not nearly enough rolls for the law of large numbers to apply and that is what you are trying to do. There are common ways to misunderstand and misapply the law of large numbers. If you flip a coin 1000 times what do you think the probability is that you get 500 heads and 500 tails? Would it surprise you to know that the chance of that occurring is only 2.52%? If you threw 10 heads in a row, I suspect many would think there is a good chance a tail would come next. But most of you know the probability is still fifty percent.
Now as far as why casinos win let's look at the following game. Consider a flipping coin game with two players where each player has a 50% chance of winning each flip. The loser pays the winner $1 and the game ends when one player has all the money of the other player. I will begin the game with one million dollars and you begin with one hundred dollars. Is there any doubt in your mind that I will end up with your hundred dollars at the end of the game? The probability of your winning this game is 100/1000100 = .00009999
Casinos win for 3 basic reasons:
1. Casinos have far more dollars than any individual player, thus ensuring the player is more likely to go broke than the casino.
2. Odds that favor the casino resulting in negative expected return for the player.
3. Casinos utilize risk management techniques that limit their maximum loss.
By using those same techniques, one can win in the casinos. In fact, these are the very same strategies taught by Golden Touch Craps in our classes. Make sure you are properly funded for the bets you are making. Turn the odds in your favor so that you have an advantage through proven methods. Utilize risk management techniques to limit your maximum loss.
Part Two: The 5-count is not a charting method!... Coming next month