Golden Touch Craps

New Articles Since Last Issue...

We have lots of great new article in this issue. We've included many of them directly in this e-mail, or you can link to them and read them online.

Articles: Henry Tamburin on Blackjack...

BLACKJACK FACT OR FICTION?

By Henry Tamburin

Are the following statements about blackjack facts, or are they fiction?

1. Referring to a strategy card when you play blackjack is perfectly legal.
2. A blackjack player who misplays his hand will always cause other players to lose.
3. The third base player can influence a dealer bust by the way he plays his hand.
4. You should always take even money when you have a blackjack and the dealer shows an Ace.
5. Splitting a pair of 8s against a dealer 10 and Ace is for suckers.
6. A progressive betting system will overcome the house edge.
7. You should always hit 16 against a dealer 10.
8. The increase in the house edge when the casino only pays 6-5 for a blackjack is offset when only a single deck of cards in used.
9. A player who enters a game in the middle of a shoe will alter the flow of the cards and cause the other table players to lose.
10. If you see the dealer's hole card by accident and don't say anything, you are cheating.
11. You need to be a genius in order to be a card counter.
12. It doesn't matter how the casino shuffles the cards.
13. You are cheating if you accept a winning bet that actually lost.
14. If you lose five hands in a row you are due to win the next hand.
15. It doesn't make any difference which seat you take when you play blackjack.

Answers.

1. Fact. You should always have a strategy card handy in case you forget how to play a hand.
2. Fiction. How well or poorly your fellow players play the game does not affect your chances of winning or losing in the long run. You could have five brilliant minds, or five chimpanzees on the same table with you, and your odds of winning remain the same.
3. Fiction. If the actions of the third base player could influence whether a dealer busts, don't you think the casinos would be doing something about it (like putting shills on third base to play in a manner that would improve the dealer's chances of beating the table)?
4. Fiction. Over the long haul you will end up with more money in your pocket if you decline even money rather than taking it.
5. Fiction. Even though that's what was said in the movie "21," you should always split 8s against a dealer 10 and Ace.
6. Fiction. No betting system alone will overcome the house edge in blackjack.
7. Fiction. If the casino offers surrender you should surrender. If your 16 is composed of three or more cards or the result of a pair split, you should stand.
8. Fiction. Even the use of a single deck doesn't come close to offsetting the ca. 1.4% increase in house edge when the house pays 6-5 for a blackjack, instead of 3-2.
9. Fiction. Yes, the cards coming out of the shoe will be different, but you can't predict if it will be better or worse. Long term it makes no difference.
10. Fiction. There is nothing illegal about taking advantage of a sloppy dealer. It's the casinos responsibility to ensure that their dealers are following the correct dealing protocols.
11. Fiction. Casinos would like you to believe that you need to be a genius to be a card counter but that's not true. Anyone with average intelligence can learn card counting.
12. Fiction. If a casino is using a Continuous Shuffling Machine, the game is faster (more hands dealt per hour) and players stand to lose more per hour.
13. Fiction. It might be unethical to accept the winning chips, but it not illegal. Again the burden of responsibility rests with the casino to ensure that their dealers are paying off bets correctly.
14. Fiction. There has never been any mathematical study that proves your chances of winning the next hand in blackjack increases depending upon what happened in previous hands.
15. Fact. Your chances of winning are independent of seat position. Any seat is just as good as any other.

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Articles: Scoblete keeps pumping out the wisdom...

I know the math of craps, enough to know that there isn't much of a difference in betting the Pass Line or the Don't Pass line. The casino wins about 1.4 percent, give or take, against both types of bettors.

The Darkside (Don't) players get hammered on the very first placement of their Don't Pass or Don't come bet when they lose on the 7 and 11 (eight ways to hit the deck) and only win on the 2 and 3 (three ways to come out ahead). The odds are eight to three. That first placement therefore cudgels the game for them. Once a number is established, however, the Darksider is in the driver's seat and that makes many Darksiders somehow think they are always playing with an edge when in fact the overall Darkside game favors the house.

The Rightside player has it on his side in a big way the very first time he places his Pass or Come bet because he wins on the 7 and 11 (eight wins) and loses on the 2, 3, and 12 (four losses). That's an eight to four (two to one) edge. If the game for Rightsiders ended there, the casinos would be owned by Rightsiders at the end of the day. Unfortunately, once a number is established the odds quickly shift in favor of the casino.

So the Darkside Don't Pass and Don't Come player has it good after the point or number is established, while the Rightside Pass and Come player has it good before the number is established. Of course, the casino has it just fine against both players. So it goes.

Do all players know these facts? Are Darksiders aware of how the casino gets its edge on them? Are Rightsiders aware of the how they get their edge and when that edge disappears? No, many have no idea of what is going on when they play the game. They just throw their bets out there and have their own reasons for doing so - many of which are somewhat erroneous or completely idiotic.

The Internet message boards geared to gambling have some of the weirdest explanations as to why to do what the poster thinks you should do to give you a good chance of winning. Here are some of the Darkside and Rightside arguments:

"When a shooter sevens out, who wins? The casino wins that's who. So why would you bet against the casino? You have to be a dope to do that. I bet with the casino. When the casino wins, I win. You got to play the Don'ts and then you are on the side of the casino and we all know how the casinos got all those bright lights don't we? Players who seven out make me money just as they make the casino money. So be smart and bet the Don'ts and you won't be sorry. Is a casino ever sorry? Nah!"

"I hate the Don't players because they bring bad luck with them to the table. They are rooting for you to lose so they can win. I hate them. They are rats and that aspect of the game should be eliminated. Very few players play the Don'ts anyway and no one wants these rats at the table. You can see their sneaky creepy little faces as they make bets that go against your bets. They are casino toadies. That is what they are. I hate those rats!"

"Here is what I do. If two seven outs occur and I am on the Rightside, I will go to the Darkside because that side is where the trend is happening and I like to ride the trends. It's the only way to win at craps and all other forms of gambling. If a shooter now hits two points I will switch back to the Rightside to ride the trend in that direction. Sometimes this doesn't work because the shooters do one then the other and I am on the opposite side of everything. But trends are the way to go. What other way is there to play?"

"I do not make any Pass or Don't Pass line bets. Those are a waste of time. I prefer to place (Rightside) or lay (Darkside) my bets. This way you can take them off and on as you see fit."

"Rightside players think they own the tables. You know what? They don't own anything. I love to screw up their shooting by placing Don't bets and I ain't like other Darksiders, man, I cheer for the seven. The Rightside players are beside themselves when I cheer for the seven. You can see their faces getting red as they hold in their anger against me. Screw them. I cheer loud as can be. I am there to win money and if I need to get these jerks angry to do that then that is what I will do. Emotions are the key to winning at craps. The stronger the other players' emotions the better off I am."

As you can see, the math of the game is completely out of the above players' minds. And that is what the casinos rely on!

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• Use the powerful poker system editor that lets you select from supplied pre-flop decision methodologies by popular authors and experts, as well as edit or create your own systems.
• View the Outs table to quickly find single card outs probabilities and pot odds with one or two cards to go.

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Articles: Stickman's stance... craps from the front line!

Playing a "Hopping 7's" Progression with a controlled shooter

by Jerry "Stickman"

A while back I wrote about playing a "Hopping 7's" progression. That article can be found here: http://stickman.casinocitytimes.com/articles/42967.html

The conclusion of that article was to avoid using the progression because the house edge of 11.11 percent will ultimately prevail. The savvy craps player will instead wager on the lowest house edge bets in an effort to minimize losses and possibly win more often. What if the shooter can control the dice? A dice controller can actually set and throw the dice in a way that increases (or decreases) the appearance of the 7. Can a dice controller overcome the house edge? Can he make it preferable to bet the hopping 7's progression rather than lower house edge bets such as placing the 6 or 8? Let's find out.

The math of the hop bet says that in a random game a player will lose 11.11 percent of all money wagered. The math also says that in a random game a player placing the 6 (or 8) will lose 1.52 percent of all money wagered. That is what the math says. Let's see what some simulations say. I ran several simulations specifying a random shooter and various levels of dice control through an excellent software program called Smart Craps from DeepNet Technologies. Each simulation was for 10 million rounds. Also for each simulation showing axis control (keeping the dice on axis more than random), the Smart Craps recommended set was used (yes, Smart Craps actually tells you the best set to use for various bets based on your specific results). This set was always an all 7's set for the hopping 7's progression and the 3-V set for placing the six.

All 7's Set:

3-V Set:

Several types of dice control were simulated - random, SRR, and axis control.

• Random simulates the typical random shooter with no dice control.
• SRR stands for Sevens-to-Rolls-Ratio. A random shooter will have one 7 in every six rolls - in the long run - which is 1 in 6.0 or represented as simply and SRR of 6.0. As the number of 7's decrease the SRR increases. One 7 in every 6.5 rolls is represented as an SRR of 6.5.
• Smart Craps measures on-axis control. All throws entered into Smart Craps for analysis use the "Hardway Set."
  The four sides of the hardway set show 2-2, 3-3, 4-4, and 5-5 - which are the hardway numbers.

The random results were very close to the mathematical calculations of -11.11 percent (-11.10) for hopping 7's and -1.52 percent (-1.53) for placing the 6. When the SRR increases to 6.5 hopping 7's is worse (-17.62 percent) than random and placing the 6 is better (3.57 percent) than random due to fewer 7's showing. When the SRR decreases to 5.5 hopping 7's is better (-3.16) than random and placing the 6 is worse (-7.28) than random due to more 7's showing.

Axis-control has some interesting results. As the level of on-axis control increases, the results become better for the player. The results are dramatically improved when all three on-axis control factors are at a passing level. But even with an exceptional level of on-axis control (600-176-125), more money is made placing the 6 than playing the hopping 7's progression.

It is clear from these numbers that playing the best bets (that is, the lowest house edge bets) makes sense even for exceptional dice controllers. The high house edge on the crazy crapper bets is nearly impossible to overcome. Accept the fact and bet the low house edge bets - even as a dice controller. Your bankroll will thank you.

Jerry "Stickman" is an expert in craps, blackjack, video poker and advantage slot machine play. He is a regular contributor to top gaming magazines. The "Stickman" is also a certified instructor for Golden Touch Craps and Golden Touch Blackjack. For more information visit www.goldentouchcraps.com or www.goldentouchblackjack.com or call 1-886-738-3423. You can contact Jerry "Stickman" at stickman@goldentouchcraps.com

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Like our Blackjack Audit program for blackjack, Smart Craps is a professional simulator for the game of craps. But Smart Craps is much, much more than a basic craps simulator... it is a power-house tool to help 'dice control' experts refine and improve their edge in the game of craps. For those not familiar with dice control... it is the physical skill of learning how to throw the dice in the game of craps, in such a way that the outcomes deviate significantly from random. Dice controllers attempt to master this skill sufficiently to get a positive edge in the game of craps. While this is a very controversial subject, DeepNet has had the chance to review, with statistically unbiased evaluation, many dice control experts... it can be done! Earning rates as high as 10% are possible, with very skilled shooters.

The best source is our web site: www.SmartCraps.com. We have summarized the features, and provided a list of the most common questions and answers. Dan Pronovost, the president of DeepNet Technologies, has also written numerous articles on craps and dice control, available at the GTC web site: http://www.goldentouchcraps.com/CrappyMath.shtml

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Articles: The Goddess Speaks...

PAI GOW POKER

Since there has been some discussion about Pai Gow poker on our craps site, I thought it might be interesting to write a short history of the game to those who are not familiar with the game.

Pai Gow has its roots in ancient China where it was played with dominoes. No one knows exactly how old the game is, but it has goes hundreds of years back in time. The domino tiles were separated into different groups, which symbolized military and civilian units, and was a very complicated game to play.

In the late 1980's, Fred Wolf owned the Commerce Casino in California, and believed the game had great potential as a card game. He introduced it as Pai Gow poker, and the game took off immediately. It is now played all over the world as well as on line.

In 1987 Pai Gow poker started in Las Vegas casinos, and in 1988 in Atlantic City, where it has been a popular game ever since. Pai Gow played with dominoes is also popular in the larger casinos.

In Pai Gow, the dealer rolls the dice that decides which tiles are going to which player, or in many casinos, a computerized machine makes that decision. Pai Gow is Chinese for "make nine," and is still played with dominoes, whereas Pai Gow poker is a game of cards. In both games, players create a front hand and a back hand, trying to beat the dealer's two hands. Pai Gow hands are won by making high point totals (nine is a high point total), and is difficult to learn.

Pai Gow poker is rather straight forward and based on standard poker hands. Pai Gow poker is played using a standard 53 card deck, which includes the joker designated as a wild card. Players are dealt 7 cards, which are split into two hands consisting of a five card and two card hand. Both players' hands must make better hands than the dealer in order to win. If one hand wins and the other loses, then it's a tie. If the hands are equal to the dealer's then it's called a "copy" hand, and the dealer wins all "copy hands." Bets are paid 1:1, and the casinos charge a 5% commission on wins.

Pai Gow poker hands frequently end in ties, and there are many options when it comes to strategy, unlike blackjack and other poker games. One nice strategy is that players have the option to be the "banker," or dealer, and because the banker wins all "copies", the house edge drops to almost zero. The game can be played at a slow or fast pace, depending on the dealer and the players.

The dealers will also tell you the "house" way to set the hands if you are new to the game. In fact, after I taught the basics of the game to a friend of mine, I overheard him explain it to a friend of his: "It's a very easy game. The dealer deals you the cards. You show the dealer your cards. He tells you how to play them. You turn them face down. The dealer shows his cards, and then yours. That's it. You don't have to know a thing."

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Bill Burton on poker

Bill Burton, well known poker player, author and GTC instructor, has a wealth of great articles that will hone your game. In our latest issue, Bill writes about Sizing Up the Game.

Sizing Up the Game

When I play Texas Holdem if I get seated in an established game I will not play my first seven hands unless I am in the blind or I have a strong hand that I can raise with. I do this for two reasons. One reason is that I want to establish an image of a tight player but more importantly I do this because it gives me time to evaluate the game and the players. The fifteen minutes or so it takes to play the seven hands usually gives me enough time to get a general feel for the game I'm in.

The first thing I notice is the general atmosphere at the table. If most of the players are talking laughing or seem to be having a good time then it usually means the game will be fairly loose. On the other hand if everyone is serious and quite it can mean that I sat down to a tight table.

Of course this will be verified once I see how many players are entering each hand mental check list to identify the players.

How many hands are they playing?

It is very easy to tell if a player is loose or tight just by the number of hands they play. Even if they don't stay in until the end you should note the number of times that a player will enter the pot.

What cards did they show down at the end?

You want to know the types of hands your opponents are playing and file this information for later. Do they like to play any suited cards, single aces, suited connectors or big cards?

What position were they in during the hand?

You want to note the position they player was in when they entered the pot. Are they playing weak hands from early position? Loose players will play weak hands out of position and this is something you want to note. If a player is tight and then comes in with a raise from early position you can determine that they have a big hand.

Did the player raise or call before the flop?

You need to know the types of hands that a player will raise with or call a raise with. Any time a player raises you should note their position and the hand they raised with. You should also look at the other players acting after the raise and determine what types of hands they will call a raise with.

Was the player the aggressor or did he check and call?

You should note whether a player is aggressive or passive by the number of times they raise or just limp in preflop. You also want to know the types of hands they may raise with or simply call or check with after the flop. Picking up on their betting patterns is crucial in reading a player.

Did the player slowplay or bluff?

Some players like to slow play hands or bluff more often. If should note if a player will limp in with pocket aces. Did they flop a big hand and try to trap the other players? Some players like to bluff or semi-bluff at specific times. Make a note any time you catch a player doing this.

When you ask yourself these types of questions after every hand, you can very quickly gauge whether your opponents are good, whether they are tight, loose, and whether they are aggressive or passive players.

Railbirding

When you get to the poker room and sign in at the registration desk, you can't always get immediate seating at a table. You are put on a waiting list and your name is called when a seat opens up at the game you requested. Many players go grab a coffee, sit down and read, or just socialize with the other players waiting for a game.

When I get put on the waiting list, I make it a habit of finding which tables are dealing the game I am waiting for. Many times there are only a couple games going for the limit I want to play so it is easy to find the tables. I then find a place to stand where I can observe the tables. If there is more than one game going on I will take turns watching the different tables.

I start to make mental notes about the players at the table. I note what type of hands they are playing, along with the number of pots they are active in. I notice who is doing the raising and try to find out what types of hands they are raising with. When I sit down in the game, I know more about all the players than they know about me and as they say, knowledge is power.

Until Next time remember:

Luck comes and goes.....Knowledge Stays Forever.