Golden Touch Craps
When a random shooter is throwing the dice the results will be random. This is not true for a controlled shooter or a rhythmic roller. It may be impossible to convince you of the following fact since you seem to have a firm belief in observing trends in random rolls of the dice. A random event is an event for which there is no way to know, before it occurs, what the outcome will be. Instead, only the probabilities of each possible outcome can be stated. Randomness is a lack of order, purpose, cause, or predictability in non-scientific parlance. A random process is a repeating process whose outcomes follow no describable deterministic pattern, but follow a probability distribution. Random describes a happening or event due to chance and not determined by other factors.
Nevertheless, it is not possible to predict a trend among random numbers in advance. One can only state a trend has occurred after the fact by looking at the numbers thrown. The nature of random throws is that there will be clusters of the same numbers repeating from time to time. But one can not predict when or how long those repetitions will occur or continue to occur.
Following is a series of 162 random numbers between the numbers of 1 and 6. I used an integer generator from the internet to create the numbers. The randomness comes from atmospheric noise, which for many purposes is better than the pseudo-random number algorithms typically used in computer programs.
6 1 4 4 1 6 3 5 5 4 2 1 4 6 6 2 6 6 4 1 4 4 6 5 2 4 3 5 6 6 2 6 3 1 2 6 1 6 4 5 5 4 5 5 6 3 6 4 2 2 4 5 1 5 4 2 2 3 1 5 2 4 5 3 5 3 3 5 1 3 5 1 2 6 2 5 1 4 1 1 2
4 6 5 1 4 2 5 6 4 1 6 1 2 1 5 2 6 1 4 2 4 3 5 2 3 5 6 1 5 3 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 3 4 2 1 3 1 1 1 6 4 1 6 1 1 4 2 4 6 4 5 5 4 5 4 2 1 4 6 1 4 2 1 2 2 3 3 2 2 6 5 2 4
If I take the top series as one die and the bottom series as the other die, I can add the two dice together and get a set of rolls that is completely random generated by nature. Below are the totals on the two dice in sequential order.
10 7 9 5 5 8 8 11 9 5 8 2 6 7 11 4 12 7 8 3 8 7 11 7 5 9 9 6 11 9 7 10 6 4 5 9 4 9 5 8 9 6 6 8 7 4 7 10 6 3 10 6 2 9 6 6 8 7 6 10 6 9 9 5 6 7 9 6 5 5 6 3 4 9 5 7 3 10 6 3 6
Notice the following anomalies (trends if you will) in this series of randomly generated numbers. There are 16 sixes and 13 nines, there should have been 11 sixes and 9 nines. There are several repeaters. But they are only inside numbers. Notice the 5588, 99, 66, 66, 99 and 55. There are 4 elevens and they only occur on rolls 8 thru 29. No elevens are thrown in the first 7 rolls and last 52 rolls. The 11 sevens are fairly evenly scattered throughout the roll, but we would expect 13 sevens instead of only 11. The sixes tended to cluster at one point. There are 11 sixes thrown in the 30 rolls between rolls 42 thru 71. You could make a lot of money betting the six with 11 out of 30.
If I were looking for trends in this roll, would I have been able to jump on the six trend? A trend did occur with that number. A trend also occurred with the eleven and repeating inside numbers. But how would I know that was going to happen? Randomly thrown dice, just like random numbers, are totally unpredictable. Hence the term RANDOM. But trends do occur with randomly thrown dice, just as they do with random numbers. That is the nature of the frequency of random numbers/dice. There is nothing in their nature that makes the trend, which does occur, predictable. We can observe it as it happens and after the fact. But because it is random, it is not possible to tell what the frequency of the random nature will be in the future.
How would you know there would be more sixes and nines in this roll than expected? How would you know 11 sixes would cluster in 30 rolls? Then if you decide you could predict that at the table, are you going to tell me that every time you see the event, which you believe caused this trend to occur, it is going to repeat itself in the future? In other words, if you see the same thing happening again, will you know a trend is about to occur?
Mathematics does not support those types of arguments. It can be demonstrated time and time again that trends can not be predicted among random numbers or throws of the dice.
The operative phrase is
Because controlling for a variable is the act of deliberately varying the experimental conditions in order to take a single variable into account in the prediction of the response variable. Controlling tends to reduce the experimental error. Control is power to direct or determine.
We do not practice to create a trend in our throws. We practice to exercise control over 3 of the 6 degrees of freedom operating on the dice when we throw them. It is the act of deliberately varying the conditions in order to take 3 variables into account in the prediction of the response variable.
Hence the difference between a controlled shooter and a random shooter.
GTC teaches us to learn a controlled throw and practice it until one can develop an edge. Then use that positive player edge against the casino by making those bets that have the smallest house advantage. If one follows those precepts, it is possible to notice a positive trend in your winnings from your casino sessions. There will be ups and downs. But the trend will be upward. This is the trend to follow.
I hope this helps because winning is the most fun!
