In Craps the 5-Count is 100 Proof! By Frank Scoblete
PART TWO: Computer Simulations of the 5-Count
In his first experiment using the Captain’s 5-Count method of play (please see my book Forever Craps: The Five-Step Advantage-Play Method! for a complete description of how to play the 5-Count) Dr. Don Catlin, Professor Emeritus at the University of Massachusetts, did a computer simulation of 200 million random shooters placing 6 and 8 for $6 each. One player, called the "Bet-All" player, obviously bet on every shooter who rolled the dice. The 5-Counter only placed the 6 and 8 after the shooter made it through the 5-Count. To make the simulation easier to digest, Dr. Catlin had the bets working at all times once they were placed, even on subsequent come-out rolls. The results:
1. Bet-All Player total wager was $6,252,014,616
2. Bet-All Player lost $94,702, 858
3. Bet-All Player’s average loss per shooter was 0.47351429
4. The 5-Counter’s total wager was $2,692,893,204
5. The 5-Counter lost $40,792,688
6. The 5-Counter’s average loss per shooter was 0.20396344
[You can make these figures palatable by dropping the six digits from the right and rounding up or down. So, the Bet-All player wagered $6,252 and lost $95; while the 5-Counter bet $2,693 and lost $41.]
We would not expect the 5-Count to show a positive expectation against strictly random rollers; after all, no betting system can change a negative into a positive. Because the 5-Count eliminated approximately 57 percent of the random shooters, this accounted for the fact that the 5-Counter lost approximately $41 for every $95 lost by the Bet-All player in a random game. In fact, the loss for both players is approximately 1.5 percent of the total amount wagered, which is about what we would expect considering the 6 and 8 come in with a 1.5 percent edge for the house.
The Captain claimed that utilizing the 5-Count would result in a possible "monetary edge" even against random rollers when comps were factored into the equation. Did this happen? Yes, in most cases the 5-Counter had the monetary edge over the casino.
Casinos will usually give back approximately 30 percent to 50 percent of a player’s theoretical loss in the form of comps (free rooms, shows, meals, cashback, match-play, etc.). Most casinos judge craps players as playing against an approximately 2-3 percent house edge; in such cases, the 5-Counter received enough in comps to push his expectation into the positive monetary zone. However, since our players were only placing the 6 and 8, it is possible that a casino rater, seeing this, would only rate the theoretical loss at 1.5 percent of what was wagered. In this case, the 5-Counter did not always get into the positive zone utilizing comps. Remember that the casino rates a 5-Counter as having played every shooter. Here are estimates I did of what the comp situation looks like for a Bet-All and a 5-Counter given various percent returns and theoretical vs. actual losses as factors:
Player’s Theoretical Loss: 3 percent of all money wagered; comps are 30 percent of theoretical loss. I used the "palatable" figures so that it would be clearer.
Theoretical Loss Actual Loss Comp Value Monetary Expectation Bet-All Player: $187.56 $95.00 $56.10 - $38.90
The 5-Counter: $187.56 $41.00 $56.10 +$15.10
Player’s Theoretical Loss: 3 percent of all money wagered; comps are 40 percent of theoretical loss.
Theoretical Loss Actual Loss Comp Value Monetary Expectation
Bet-All Player: $187.56 $95.00 $75.00 - $20.00
The 5-Counter: $187.56 $41.00 $75.00 +$34.00
Player’s Theoretical Loss: 3 percent of all money wagered; comps are 50 percent of theoretical loss.
Theoretical Loss Actual Loss Comp Value Monetary Expectation
Bet-All Player: $187.56 $95.00 $93.78 - $ 1.22
The 5-Counter: $187.56 $41.00 $93.78 +$53.78
Player’s Theoretical Loss: 2 percent of all money wagered; comps are 30 percent of theoretical loss.
Theoretical Loss Actual Loss Comp Value Monetary Expectation
Bet-All Player: $125.04 $95.00 $37.51 - $57.49
The 5-Counter: $125.04 $41.00 $37.51 - $ 3.49*
Player’s Theoretical Loss: 2 percent of all money wagered; comps are 40 percent of theoretical loss.
Theoretical Loss Actual Loss Comp Value Monetary Expectation
Bet-All Player: $125.04 $95.00 $50.00 - $45.00
The 5-Counter: $125.04 $41.00 $50.00 +$ 9.00
Player’s Theoretical Loss: 2 percent of all money wagered; comps are 50 percent of theoretical loss.
Theoretical Loss Actual Loss Comp Value Monetary Expectation
Bet-All Player: $125.04 $95.00 $62.52 - $32.48
The 5-Counter: $125.04 $41.00 $62.52 +$21.52
Player’s Theoretical Loss: 1.5 percent of all money wagered; comps are 30 percent of theoretical loss.
Theoretical Loss Actual Loss Comp Value Monetary Expectation
Bet-All Player: $95.00 $95.00 $28.50 - $66.50
The 5-Counter: $95.00 $41.00 $28.50 -$12.50*
Player’s Theoretical Loss: 1.5 percent of all money wagered; comps are 40 percent of theoretical loss.
Theoretical Loss Actual Loss Comp Value Monetary Expectation
Bet-All Player: $95.00 $95.00 $38.00 - $57.00
The 5-Counter: $95.00 $41.00 $38.00 -$ 3.00*
Player’s Theoretical Loss: 1.5 percent of all money wagered; comps are 50 percent of theoretical loss.
Theoretical Loss Actual Loss Comp Value Monetary Expectation
Bet-All Player: $95.00 $95.00 $47.50 - $47.50
The 5-Counter: $95.00 $41.00 $47.50 +$ 6.50
As we can see, the 5-Counter only faces a monetary disadvantage in casinos that rate the game as having a 1.5 percent to 2 percent edge with a 30 percent comp giveback and in games that are rated 1.5 percent with a 40 percent giveback. The most the 5-Counter is down is $12.50 in the latter game.
NEXT ISSUE: GETTING THE REAL EDGE WITH THE 5-COUNT!
Frank Scoblete is the #1 best-selling gaming author in America. His books and tapes have sold over a million copies. He is also director of the Golden Touch™ Craps dice-control seminars. His websites are www.scoblete.com at RGT online and www.goldentouchcraps.com . For a free brochure of his books and tapes, or information about his seminars, call: 1-800-944-0406 or write to: Paone Press, Box 610, Lynbrook, NY 11563.
Get Dom's craps tips — free.
Join thousands of players on Dominator's newsletter: dice control tips, seminar announcements, and a free craps e-book the moment you sign up. No spam — unsubscribe anytime.