New Articles Since Last Issue...

We have lots of great new article in this issue. We've included many of them directly in this e-mail, or you can link to them and read them online.

Articles: Henry Tamburin on Blackjack...

A BIRD IN THE HAND

Sometimes it Pays to Discard a Winning Hand in Video Poker

By Henry Tamburin

This is a true story that happened to my father-in-law, Pete. I've written about him before and his love of video poker. At age 90 he is in fact one tough player. Quarter jacks-or-better is his game and he learned how to play correctly by practicing on video poker training software on my computer (he practices often). He also always brings a strategy card with him when he plays just in case.

Peter and my mother in law Helen visited us in Las Vegas. Knowing that he loves his jacks-or-better, I took him to a local casino that offers the highest paying jacks-or-better pay schedule (so called 9/6 jacks-or-better, where the full house pays 9 coins and the flush 6 coins per coin played). But as luck would have it, Pete wasn't doing well the first week he played. He had already endured a half dozen losing session and he wasn't happy about it. It wasn't because he wasn't playing accurately; he just wasn't getting the cards. And this short-term blip in his bankroll is normal for the game albeit it can be frustating. Then it happened.

One evening out of the blue Pete asked me about a hand that he had played earlier in the day that bothered him. He was dealt the 6, 10, jack, king and ace in clubs, meaning he was dealt a winning five-card flush that paid 30 coins. He also realized at the last second that he also had a four-card royal in the same hand, but because he had been on such a prolonged, week-long losing streak, he decided to take the sure paying flush. Keeping that tempting paying flush, however, was a mistake and he should have thrown the 6 of clubs away and drew to the four-card royal. Even though the four-card flush paid 30 coins the expected value for drawing to a four-card royal is almost 92 coins meaning holding the four-card royal is by far the more profitable play to make in the long run than holding the sure 30-coin paying flush. Pete knew better and, of course, after he reviewed his strategy card he realized what a big mistake he made. The strategy card clearly states "break a FLUSH or STRAIGHT for a four-card royal flush," so he should have discarded the 6 of clubs and draw one card. He was beside himself that he forgot such a critical play and made the wrong play. I told him to forget about, the hand is history, just learn from your mistake and never keep a paying flush (or straight) if you also have a four-card royal flush in the same hand.

Fast forward two days. I went to watch some friends play in a Blackjack Tournament and Pete came along. He quickly got antsy and wanted to play some video poker. Fortunately, I found a 9/6 jacks-or-better machine in the sports bar, so after getting him settled, I left him to play video poker while I went to watch the blackjack tournament.

A short while later I saw him out of the corner of my eye sitting next to a slot machine. I couldn't imagine why he was there and not playing video poker so I approached him to find out if there was a problem. He was all smiles when he pulled his TITO ticket out of his pocket and flashed it front of me ...it was for slightly more than a grand. I said, "Don't tell me you hit the royal?" His response was, "Yep, and you wouldn't believe what happened? " I couldn't imagine what he was referring to until he starting to explain.

It turned he was dealt ... would you believe ... the same hand he got a few days earlier except in spades. It was a 6 of spades and also the 10, jack, king and ace of spades. This time, however, he discarded the 6 and the sure paying 30 coin flush and instead held the four-card royal. He needed to draw a queen of spades, a one in 47 shot, and he nearly died when it popped up on the screen for a $1,000 royal flush.

The moral of this story is that when you play video poker a bird in the hand is not always worth more than two in the bush. You agree, Pete?

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Articles: Scoblete keeps pumping out the wisdom...

World Casino Champions Crowned in Las Vegas!

By Frank Scoblete

August 14, 15 and 16 was a great weekend in Las Vegas for casino players interested in competing in 11 casino tournaments and taking a dozen classes given by such experts and best-selling writers as Henry Tamburin, Jerry "Stickman," Bill "Ace-10" Burton, Dominator, John "Skinny," and Billy "the Kid."

The World Casino Championships was a raging success with players coming in from Canada, Mexico, Australia as well as the United States.

The weekend was launched with a giant "Meet and Greet" party on Friday evening. I got to interview the woman who set the new World Record Craps roll of 154 number before sevening out. Pat DeMauro and her good friend John Capra (who was at the table doing the betting) gave us great information about the roll, how long it took, why it took over four hours and what kind of players were at the table and the types of bets players were making.

Since the table was so long (probably 16-feet) there were 18 players. Pat estimated that at least 10 of them were novices, including her. There were also three young women who had never played the game and were being instructed on what to do by the dealers.

Pat's roll eclipsed the Captain's former World Record roll of 147 numbers.

Pat also explained how the casino needed her permission to film her and write about her. Almost the first thing the casino did was have her sign a release form so they could get the word out to the media about this fabulous roll. Not being shy, Pat went with the publicity and now everyone knows about this great World Record roll. (You can read the full story of this remarkable roll in the July issue of Casino Player magazine.)

On Saturday and Sunday, 10 of the tournaments were held (the poker tournament was held on Friday morning) and four of those tournaments were won by women. Remember when women never played craps or table games? Here's what made this amazing: women made up less than 10 percent of the people who played in the tournaments so their success was nothing short of remarkable.

The weekend was capped off with a giant banquet in the main banquet room and an awards ceremony. What follows are the World Casino Champions:

Frank Scoblete's

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Articles: Stickman's stance... craps from the front line!

The Effect of Odds For a Controlled Shooter

by Jerry "Stickman"

Recently I wrote an article comparing a pass line bet with placing the 6 or eight at various levels of dice control. The article compared three different levels of control and the resultant edge for each type of bet. The levels compared were for different SRR's.

A random shooter will throw six 7's out of every 36 rolls on average - or, simplifying, 1 out of every 6 rolls. Saying it more simply, we say a shooter has a Sevens to Rolls Rations - or SRR of 6. If a shooter is able to eliminate just under one 7 out of every 36 rolls, that shooter will have an SRR of 7. Math has shown that achieving an SRR of just 6.3 (one 7 in every 6.3 rolls) and betting only the best bets will swing the edge to the player. I used SRR's of 6.0 (Random), 6.5 and 7.0 for comparison between the Pass Lien bet and Placing a 6.

Many craps players do not know that the low house edge on the Pass Line bet comes from a two-to-one advantage on the come-out. Here is how it works. On come-out a 7 or 11 wins the pass line bet, a 2, 3, or 12 loses. Out of 36 possible combinations of the two dice there are 6 ways to throw a 7 (1-6, 2-5, 3-4, 4-3, 5-2, and 6-1) and 2 ways to throw an 11 (5-6 and 6-5) for a total of 8 ways to win the pass line bet on come-out. There is one way to throw a 2 (1-1), two ways to throw a 3 (1-2, and 2-1), and 1 way to throw a 12 (6-6) for a total of 4 ways to lose the pass-line bet. There are eight ways to win versus four ways to lose - a 2-to-1 advantage on come-out. Once a point is established, the edge swings dramatically to the house.

The results of that comparison are listed in the table below:

By the results above it is clear - even a slightly improved SRR favors placing the 6 and/or 8 over a pass-line bet. But what if we add odds to the pass line bet? How will that change thing?

As almost all craps players know, the odds bet carries no house edge. In a random game of craps, no house edge is the best that it gets. All other bets on the table have a built in house edge, so in a random game of craps betting a small pass line bet with maximum odds is the best way to diminish the impact of the house edge on the money bet. For example, if you bet $10 on the pass line with $50 in odds, the house will take .326 percent. If $60 is bet on the pass line, the house will take 1.414 percent - 4 1/3 times more. But, a controlled shooter has the ability to reduce the appearance of the 7, thereby reducing the 2-1 edge on come-out and increasing the odds of winning the point. If a controlled shooter has an edge greater than 1.4 percent, he actually has an edge over the house on a pass line bet without odds. Will adding the no-house-edge odds bet dilute his edge? The short answer is no. If the controlled shooter has an edge of more than 1.4 percent, he will win on the odds bet - not break even!

The table below shows the edges for pass line/come bets with different odds as well as placing the 6 or 8.

As expected the greater the SRR, the higher the player's advantage - regardless of whether the pass line is played or the 6/8 is placed.

Also, from the table we can see that if a SRR 6.5 or better shooter is taking two times odds or less, he is better off placing the 6 or 8. A shooter may only take single or double odds if that is the table maximum, or if the shooter's bankroll dictates he only has $30 to bet per hand. A $10 minimum pass line bet with double odds is $30 as is placing the 6 for $30. With these limits, a 6.5 SRR or better shooter will be better off placing the 6 or 8. If, however, he is playing on a $5 minimum table that allows 5 times odds, he is better off with a pass line bet and full odds. On a 3-4-5 times odds table, it is almost even whether he places a 6 or 8 or bets the pass line.

So there it is. If you have a verifiable SRR of 6.5 or greater you are better off betting a pass line or come bet with 5 times odds than placing the 6 or 8. If you can only go double odds or less, however, you are better off placing the 6 or 8.

I personally like the idea of playing on a 3-4-5 times odds table so I can decide whether to place the 6 or 8 or go with pass line and come bets and not suffer any decreased edge.

Until the next time........

Jerry "Stickman"

Jerry "Stickman" is an expert in craps, blackjack, video poker and advantage slot machine play. He is a regular contributor to top gaming magazines. The "Stickman" is also a certified instructor for Golden Touch Craps and Golden Touch Blackjack. His current book "Specific Slots Machines That Give the Players the Edge!" provides mathematically proven advantages over the house on some slots! For more information visit www.goldentouchcraps.com or www.goldentouchblackjack.com or call 1-886-738-3423. You can contact Jerry "Stickman" at stickman@goldentouchcraps.com.

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The best source is our web site: www.SmartCraps.com. We have summarized the features, and provided a list of the most common questions and answers. Dan Pronovost, the president of DeepNet Technologies, has also written numerous articles on craps and dice control, available at the GTC web site: http://www.goldentouchcraps.com/CrappyMath.shtml

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Article: Geek Corner with Dan...