To Thine Own Self Be True

Craps is a negative expectation game. "Negative expectation" means the house has an advantage on every bet you make in craps. The amount of money paid on each and every bet is less than what the math would dictate you get paid.

For example, if you make a field bet it will pay 1-1 (even money) if you win the bet. If the field bet pays 2-1 on the 2 and 12, the house edge on this bet is 5.556%. You win the field bet if a 2,3,4,9,10,11 or 12 is rolled and lose if a 5,6,7 or 8 is rolled. You win double if a 2 or 12 is rolled.

On the surface it looks like you have 7 ways to win and only 4 ways to lose. But if you make this bet 36 times, once for each of the 36 combination of ways the dice can be rolled, you will win $18 dollars and lose $20. Your expectation is to lose $2 for every $36 you bet. 2/36 = 1/18 = 5.556% This means in the long run you can expect to lose $5.55 for every $100 you bet on the field.

It is not possible to alter the house advantage in favor of the player by various mixtures or arrangements of bets. Since each and every bet has a negative expectation, you cannot combine them in ways to give the player a positive expectation. You also cannot alter the math in favor of the player by trying to keep your bets up for a short time in the hopes of getting a big enough payoff to overcome the house advantage on the low expectation bets, which have a high payoff. Every one of these bets with a large pay out have the highest house advantage and are all terrible bets.

There is no basis in fact for the rest of the ideas suggested in your post. I realize you did not come up with these on your own. You are asking if there is any validity to the ideas proposed by the author of the book you read. I can say unequivocally the suggestions proposed are completely invalid.

The only way to alter the odds of craps in favor of the player is by becoming a controlled shooter or only betting on players who are altering the odds of the game with a controlled shot. If you are a random shooter, it is impossible to alter the odds in your favor to make craps a positive expectation game for you. If anyone tells you there is a "betting system" that can do otherwise they are mistaken.

It is hard work to become a controlled shooter but it is worth the effort if you want to be able to have a chance at beating the house at their own game. I would hope by now, you would have read enough by the folks on this board who have done so to be able to decide on your own about what I am saying. You should not take anyone's word on gambling if you cannot prove it to your own satisfaction. I like to follow the advice Polonius gave to his son Laertes in William Shakespeare's Hamlet. "To thine own self be true" is the motto I have found works best for me when it comes to gambling.

Having said all that I am now going to give some advice, which may seem contradictory but is really completely consistent with everything I have said above. If for whatever reason you are not ready to make the commitment to become a controlled shooter then as a random shooter you may as well give yourself the best opportunity to try to win at craps. In order to accomplish that objective you need to educate yourself on the best way possible to do it.

You can find a wealth of information in the Articles and GTC Wisdom pages on the private pages of this board. You can also purchase several of Frank Scoblete's books, which will add to your education on the subject. Take a look at my article "The 5-Count Changes the Odds of the Game!" on the public homepage of this site. It is listed under The Skinny from Skinny. That article may seem contradictory to what I have said but it is not. I am suggesting a way to play to give one the best possible chance at altering the odds in favor of the player "because" it provides you the best chance of finding someone who "is" able to alter the odds of the game in favor of the player thru a controlled shot.

If you are serious about wanting to have a chance at beating the casinos any of the instructors, students or myself would be happy to give you our best advice on that topic. Join "The Craps Club - Members Only" and feel free to ask any questions because that is how we all learn. But you need to do some of the work yourself as well. Read some of the other material as I have suggested and form some opinions for yourself. Then if you have any questions about the material there are plenty of people on the private message board who would be willing and able to help you.