Strategies for playing Casino Craps: Is Random Craps Really Random?
By Frank Scoblete
I have a mind experiment for you. We know that in 36 rolls of the dice, the probabilities of the various numbers coming up are as follows:
|2|| – one time|
|3|| – two times|
|4|| – three times|
|5|| – four times|
|6|| – five times|
|7|| – six times|
|8|| – five times|
|9|| – four times|
|10|| – three times|
|11|| – two times|
|12|| – one time|
If we had perfect probability work itself out in 36 rolls, you would see all the numbers appear their given times. If we had perfect probability work itself out in 36 trillion rolls, we would see all the numbers work themselves out a trillion times more than they do in 36 rolls.
Now, let us say that you are looking at a sheet of 36 trillion craps decisions and you notice that all the numbers have appeared based on their probability. You would say that the game that was played was random.
Now I come to you and say, "Hey, wait a minute. Bill Carbone shot the dice one trillion times and only hit the 2, he hit no other numbers. And Dave Granger shot the dice a trillion times and only hit the 12. Tom Smith hit six trillion 7s and his wife hit five trillion 6s and her lame excuse for a brother hit five trillion 8s. Look at this, Joe Snode hit the 4 three trillion times in as many rolls, and his wife, Pam, hit the 10 three trillion times, too. Timmy McMann hit the 11 two trillion times; Barry Durso hit the 3 two trillion times and Strange Kevin hit the 5 and the 9 four million times each.
What would you think then? Is the game random or not?
The complete text of Frank's article is available exclusively in the Articles section of The Craps Club.
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