Odds and Edges - Pass Line & Field Bets
On this page we will start with craps strategy - showcasing the craps bets that are designed to see that the player loses more bets than they win.
Pass/Don't Pass Line Bets
The main bet in casino craps is the pass line bet. The bet pays even money when it wins and over the long haul players will lose more decisions than they win.
To determine how often this bet will lose and to avoid having to deal with fractions, we must start by finding the total number of decisions that are required to win with the sevens and elevens, lose with the crap rolls and establish all of the point numbers, and see all of those established point numbers through to a decision. Assume that every roll is a come out roll and every established point continues to a decision. This will require 55 rounds of the 36 dice combinations or 1980 rolls.
| Number |
Times Thrown |
Winning Rolls |
Losing Rolls |
| 7 |
330 |
330 |
0 |
| 11 |
110 |
110 |
0 |
| 2-3-12 |
220 |
0 |
220 |
| 4 |
165 |
55 |
110 |
| 10 |
165 |
55 |
110 |
| 5 |
220 |
88 |
132 |
| 9 |
220 |
88 |
132 |
| 6 |
275 |
125 |
150 |
| 8 |
275 |
125 |
150 |
| Totals |
1980 |
976 |
1004 |
The player wins 28 bets less than the bank or he would need to change 14 bets to come out even. 28/1980=7/495= 1.414 % This represents the house advantage on a pass line or come bet.
The house advantage for a don’t pass or don’t come bet is 1.364 % if you count the push on the 12 as an event or 1.403 % if you ignore the 12 since it doesn’t affect the bet. The chart below shows how this calculation is done.
| Number |
Times Thrown |
Winning Rolls |
Losing Rolls |
| 7 |
330 |
0 |
330 |
| 11 |
110 |
0 |
110 |
| 2-3 |
165 |
165 |
0 |
| 12 |
55 |
0 |
0 |
| 4 |
165 |
110 |
55 |
| 10 |
165 |
110 |
55 |
| 5 |
220 |
132 |
88 |
| 9 |
220 |
132 |
88 |
| 6 |
275 |
150 |
125 |
| 8 |
275 |
150 |
125 |
| Totals |
1980 |
949 |
976 |
The player wins 27 fewer bets than the bank or he would need to change 13.5 bets to be even. 27/1980 = 1.36%. This represents the house advantage for the don’t pass and don’t come bets. If you ignore the times when the player and the bank push on the roll of 12 the calculation is 27/1925 = 1.40%.
The chart below shows the house advantage percentages for pass line and come bets with free odds multiples.
0 x ODDS = 1.414 %
1 x ODDS = .848 %
2 x ODDS = .606 %
3 x ODDS = .471 %
5 x ODDS = .326 %
10x ODDS = .184 %
20x ODDS = .099 %
100 x ODDS = .021 %
The chart below shows the house advantage percentages for don’t pass and don’t come bets with free odds multiples.
0 x ODDS = 1.364 %
1 x ODDS = .682 %
2 x ODDS = .455 %
3 x ODDS = .341 %
5 x ODDS = .227 %
10 x ODDS = .124 %
20 x ODDS = .065 %
100 x ODDS = .014 %
The free odds bet is confusing to some players, especially those that are new to the game. Most players accept the fact that taking free odds reduces the house advantage but don’t really know how this reduction works. Some might assume that by taking odds they will improve their chances of winning their pass line bet. This assumption is completely false. The chances of winning never change and are governed by the dice probability chart.
Simply put, because the portion of the total amount bet in free odds is paid at correct odds, the over all amount wagered creeps closer to a correct pay off as the odds portion increases. It will never reach the correct pay off even if unlimited odds were offered. The loss expectation for any pass line bet is 1.414 % and the loss expectation for an odds bet of any multiple is 0 %, so the expected loss in dollars never changes and that dollar amount is always 1.414 % of the line bet.
Field Bets
The other bet whose house advantage that is tied to the number of wins and losses is the field bet. The field pays on 2,3,4,9,10,11,12, and loses on 5,6,7,8. Our probability chart shows that the winning numbers total 16 combinations and the losing numbers total 20. When the 2 and 12 pay double you should expect to lose one bet out of 18 or .555%, and when either the 2 or 12 pays triple you should expect to lose one bet out of 36 or .277 %.
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