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< size=3B> Hello from Golden Touch Craps/Blackjack:
Welcome once again to the new Golden Touch e-Newsletter, keeping you in touch with all our latest offerings and new articles.
Did you know that GTC has a Top Post of the Month Award for our
GTC Forum? Every month, the GTC course Interns comb
the forum posts and select the best for Post of the Month and Post of Distinction.
In December, GordanM won the top spot with
his posts for "Come Line Betting" , and "Regarding Craps in General". View all the details
here:
http://www.goldentouchcraps.com/post0023.shtml.
Frank and Dom on the Playboy Radio Network! Both Frank and Dom where independently interviewed on
the Playboy radio network after their recent article in Playboy Magazine. Click below for the audio download
of each of their interviews:
Click here to listen to Frank's full interview (3 meg. download).
Click here to listen to Dom's full interview (6 meg. download).
GTC 12 Days of Christmas!
Every gambler's holiday wish list is fulfilled!
Click here
to listen to this hillarious rendition of a popular
favorite with a new twist (5 meg. download).
New Articles Since Last Issue...
In this issue of the GTC e-newsletter, we're including new articles directly in the e-mail! This means you don't have to click links to GTC
web site to read these articles. The new articles are spread out throughout the newsletter, so read to see new content from Frank Scoblete,
Skinny, and Jerry 'Stickman'.
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In Fabulous Las Vegas! August 14, 15 and 16 in 2009. Special $25,000 and
$50,000 dice rolls. Tournaments in Craps, Blackjack, Pai Gow Poker,
Baccarat and Slots! Also 10 great classes by Frank Scoblete, Henry Tamburin,
Jerry "Stickman" and other GTC celebrities.
Prizes and plaques for the winners and runners-up in the tournaments.
Great lunches and a very special full-service awards banquet too! Special
Advantage Play mid-week pre-WCC '09 courses available for blackjack, craps
tuneups with Frank Scoblete and Dominator and advantage-play slot machines
(extra course fees apply). Only $699 but a special discount of $100 for GTC
newsletter readers - you pay just $599 but you must sign-up before February 10, 2009.
Click here
to sign-up online at the reduced $599 rate. For more
information, visit our web site:
http://www.goldentouchcraps.com/wcc_2009.shtml.
'Stickman' is a lead GTC and GTB instructor, and a proven veteran of dice control. Read his latest article,
Is This a Good Promotion? Jerry also has two other new articles since our last e-newsletter:
Dice Pilots Betting System
and
Jared's Hedge Betting System
.
Is This a Good Promotion?
by Jerry "Stickman"
Stickman,
I have found a local promotion that is as follows.... Shooter makes no extra bet and is paid 10X their line bet when they throw 13 rolls between sevens. If you throw a seven on the comeout roll the count simply resets. You can win multiple times during the same hand. The promo pays a maximum of $500 per win. I won it twice last night at $10.
Could you try to run some numbers that could show what the EV is on this? The promo lasts all month. It seems that it might give an edge off the top. I'm considering playing only a $50 line bet with $50 odds and no other bets and trying to get a heads up game so that I can throw as many hands per hour as possible.
Wanna fly to Seattle and help???
William
William,
Anytime a casino gives you something for nothing it is a good thing. Let’s look at this first from a high level. The pass line bet has a house edge of 1.4%. That means a random shooter will lose 14 cents for every $10 bet on the pass line or $14 in 100 hands. If a shooter was able to go 13 rolls without a 7 only once in every 100 hands, he would win an extra $100 and be ahead $86! I suspect someone may have gotten fired over this promotion.
Let’s look at it in a little more detail. A random roller average hand length is about 8.5 rolls. A random roller has one 7 for each 6 rolls on average. This gives him a Sevens to Rolls Ratio of 1 in 6 or to state it more cryptically – an SRR of 6. The average hand of about 8.5 includes hands of all different lengths. How many of these hands are 14 rolls or more?
While there may be a way to calculate the edge using pure math, I do not know what it is. I do have a software tool that can do the job, however. Smart Craps software can be used to simulate all types of shooters and table payoffs. One can also program virtually any betting system in the software. It gives a plethora of detail about the results obtained from these simulations. So what does it say about how many hands are longer than 14 rolls? According to Smart Craps the percentage of hands of 14 roll or more is 17.7 percent. Getting paid an extra 10 times your line bet 17% of the time is well more than enough to offset the house edge.
There is one problem with this percentage, however, there could be come out 7’s in the hands that are 14+ rolls. Fortunately, Smart Craps can be programmed to mimic the promotion by counting the number of rolls without a 7 – so I programmed it. Here is what I did and the results. You mentioned that you could win multiple times on the same hand. I am not sure if you meant that the no-7’s counter restarted each time you got paid for 13 non-7 rolls in a row, so I simply allowed only one win of the promotional incentive per hand. This is the most conservative way to calculate the edge.
Out of one million hands, a random shooter will collect the bonus 132,501 times. With a $10 line bet, the bonus will be $100 each time it is collected. By adding the bonus money to the calculated loss of 1.42% of the total amount bet (which Smart Craps accumulated as $25,241,960*) we go from a net loss of $358,420 to a net win of $12,891,680. Dividing this bet the total amount bet yields a player advantage of 51%. RUN don’t walk to take advantage of this promotion before the casino goes belly-up – and by the way I will see you in 8 hours which is as soon as I can fly to Seattle! There is no way this one will last long and I want to get in on it before someone is fired or the casino goes under.
- * The total amount bet is the sum of all pass line bets placed and decided. Each hand can have several line bets placed. For example: a 2, 3, 7, 11, or 12 thrown on come-out will each count as $10 toward the total amount bet. After a point is established, each time it is made (or the shooter 7’s out) counts as $10 toward the total bet amount.
As stated in the beginning – anytime the casino gives you something for nothing it is a good thing. Let’s look at similar possible promotions to demonstrate how powerful "free" bets are.
- Shooter is paid one times the line bet if they go 13 rolls without a 7
. In this case the shooter will win $1,325,010 in a million hands and go from a loss of $358,420 to a net win of $966,590. Dividing the net win by the total amount bet gives a player edge of 3.8%. So even simply paying the pass line bet as a bonus gives the player a hefty edge.
Shooter has to bet an additional amount up to the pass line amount and is paid 10-to-1 if the shooter goes 13 rolls without a 7. Assuming the shooter bets $10 on the additional bet, the total amount bet will be twice the $25,241,960 or $50,483,920. He will lose $358,420 on the pass line bet. He will win $1,325,010 on the 132,501 he throw 13 time or more and he will lose $13,916,950 on the 1,391,695 time he doesn’t throw 13+ rolls without a 7 for a net loss of $12,950,360 and a house edge of better than 25%.
The difference is placing an additional bet rather than getting a bonus without betting anything more. Free bets make a world of difference. Take advantage of them whenever possible.
Follow-up Note: I received this email shortly after the original email:
Stickman,
Well the night that I found the promo I won it two out of five hands. I drove up there (60 miles) to play it the following week but they had canceled it. Lost too much I guess.
William
May all your wins be swift and large and all your losses be slow and tiny.
Jerry "Stickman"
Jerry "Stickman" is an expert in craps, blackjack, video poker and advantage slot machine play. He is a regular contributor to top gaming magazines. The "Stickman" is also a certified instructor for Golden Touch Craps and Golden Touch Blackjack. His current book "
Specific Slots Machines That Give the Players the Edge!" provides mathematically proven advantages over the house on some slots! For more information visit www.goldentouchcraps.com or www.goldentouchblackjack.com or call 1-800-944-0406. You can contact Jerry "Stickman" at stickman@goldentouchcraps.com.
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Where can I learn more about Smart Craps?
The best source is our web site: www.SmartCraps.com. We have summarized the features, and provided a list of the most common questions and answers. Dan Pronovost, the president of DeepNet Technologies, has also written numerous articles on craps and dice control, available at the GTC web site: http://www.goldentouchcraps.com/CrappyMath.shtml
Can I try it out before buying?
Of course... Smart Craps is shareware, like all of our software products. The unregistered shareware version of Smart Craps will let you fully explore the program and features. But, it will only allow limited rounds during simulation runs, and will prompt you from time to time to purchase a registration ('nag' screens). After you buy the program, you will receive a registration code by e-mail to enter into the program, which will disable ALL shareware 'nags' forever. Here is the download link:
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Frank calls Skinny "the genius of GTC" for his amazingly well-researched posts on craps and other topics on our private Golden Touch
TM web site. Here is his latest new article:
Probability or Odds --- Same or Different?.
Probability or Odds --- Same or Different?
People sometimes use these terms interchangeably for the same mathematical expression. Other times they use one term when they should be using the other. In the big scheme of things this is not all that significant. One need not get too concerned if one uses the wrong term because folks will often understand what you mean either way.
I thought it would be helpful to explain the difference between the two terms for those who may be unclear about when to use one versus the other and would like to be better informed about the proper meaning of the two terms.
OK, let's get probability and odds squared away. Essentially they are expressing the same thing but doing them in a slightly different manner. Odds are expressed as a relationship between an event occurring or not and probabilities are expressed as a ratio of possible events to total events. Probabilities by definition are therefore between 0 and 1 inclusively. They are commonly expressed as a fraction, decimal or percentage.
All right, I know that is "math speak" and I may have lost some of you with it. Please bear with me and I hope it will become clearer.
In other words if we look at an event that can occur,
The odds of it occurring are expressed as the relation of the chance FOR it occurring to the chances AGAINST it occurring.
Odds = (Chances for):(Chances against)
The probability of it occurring is expressed as the ratio of the chances FOR it occurring to the TOTAL chances that can occur (the sum of those for and against).
Probability = (Chances for)/(Total Chances) where Total Chances equals the sum of Chances for and Chances against.
For example, getting a winning bet on the Iron Cross. The Iron Cross is a wager where one makes a field bet in addition to a place bet on the 5, 6 and 8. You will lose all four of your wagers if a seven is thrown and win at least one of your bets if any other number is thrown. There are 36 possible ways for the dice to land. There are 6 ways to throw a seven and 30 ways to throw one of the other numbers. You need to throw any number other than a seven to win one of your bets.
The odds are 30:6 or 30 to 6, which could be reduced to 5:1, or 5 to 1.
The probability of winning a bet with the Iron Cross would be 30/36, 5/6, .833 or 83%.
There is no conjecture or guessing in calculating the probability. It has the same degree of accuracy as the odds.
The odds of throwing a head with a single flip of a coin are 1:1 or 1 to 1. The probability of a head is 1/2, .5 or 50%. The odds and probability are both taking the same data into consideration. They are both looking at the possibility of 1 event occurring out of 2 possible outcomes.
Yeah, I know. I promised it would become clearer and your eyes are glazing over at this point. But I will make a wager with you that you understand this much better than you think you do. Try the following example and see if you get the proper answer.
I have a box with 4 black balls and 1 white ball, all the same size and weight, inside it. You select 1 ball at random from inside the box.
What is the probability you will select the white ball?
Probability = (Chances for)/(Total Chances) where Total Chances equals the sum of Chances for and Chances against.
What are the odds you will select the white ball?
Odds = (Chances for):(Chances against)
Stop here and try to figure it out before reading any further.
You have to answer both questions.
Did you get the right answers?
I made a wager with you on this. We are betting even money on the outcome. But I am making this wager with all the people who want to make the bet. I am making this bet with a number of different people.
I only win money if more people who take the wager get the right answer than the wrong answer. I do not expect everyone to get the right answer. But if a smaller number get the wrong answer than the right answer I will win money.
I think the probability of getting the wrong answer is 1/5, .20 or 20%.
I think the odds of getting the wrong answer are 1:4 or 1 to 4.
And those are the same answers you should have gotten for the problem I gave you above.
How did I do with my wager?
We've arranged this special offer for all of our GTC newsletter subscribers. Get a full three month membership
to the Blackjack Insider e-newsletter, a monthly publication of new articles best the gaming industry's
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issues in their archives going back to 2001!
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New gambling articles by the prolific Frank Scoblete himself.
His latest article is
Dear Slot Director!
Dear Slot Director, by Frank Scoblete
I just realized something about myself. I am a dolt when it comes to slot machines. Yes, a complete and utter dolt. I have my fellow Strictly Slots columnist Frank Legato to thank for this revelation. He doesn’t know that he is the one who has allowed me to realize something very important about the slot machines – or, rather, the buying and/or renting of slot machines by the casinos’ slot directors.
Oh, yes, I know about the programming of slots as I’ve actually done consulting work for slot manufacturers; and, yes, I know about the (pseudo) RNG (random number generator); and I certainly know what a payback percentage means and how those various payback percentages translate into house edges on the various machines.
Yes, I also know what areas of the country have the best slot paybacks on various denominations thanks to the charts in magazines telling which areas have the lowest returns on the various machines. In some venues such as Atlantic City I even know what the paybacks are at distinct casinos.
Okay, so what didn’t I know about the slot machines?
In just about every issue of Strictly Slots, Frank Legato, a funny and insightful slot writer, describes many of the new and sometimes old machines. He explains how they are played and usually which manufacturers have made the machines. Then he informs us as to what locations have already booked these machines (or are about to book them).
That’s not the revelation. What grabbed my attention when I was last reading Frank’s section on the new machines was a single line that said: "Payback % Range." Under this Frank gave the manufacturers’ range of paybacks. That’s when I had my revelation!
I have read this line and the line under this line for years and it never dawned on me that it shouldn’t be the casinos’ choice as to what payback they have on these machines – it should be me – and you – and all slot players!
If new machines are hitting the floors, why shouldn’t they be the variety with the highest payback?
Let’s take a look at one machine of the hundreds that Frank has written about to get some idea of what I am talking about. The name of the machine is "Anything But Six" created by International Game Technology.
The "Payback % Range" goes from 85 percent to 98 percent. That’s a monstrous 15 percent house edge down to a mere two percent house edge. What do the outer edges of this payback mean in terms of your money? Well, at the 85 percent range, for every $100 you wager in the machine, your expectation is to lose $15. While the 98 percent machine is expected to lose you a mere (meaning tiny, measly, and relatively small) two dollars for every $100 you wager. That is some great difference isn’t it?
So what can you do about this? First, you must read my personal new guru Frank Legato’s slot machine articles each month. Then you must write letters to the casinos where these new machines are at asking, demanding, pleading with the casino to only install the highest percentage payback that the machine allows.
Yes, I’ll admit, a few letters night not sway the slot machine directors to make their machines as loose as they can possibly be – but thousands of letters might have a positive effect.
Here is a sample letter that you can use – adapt as you see fit:
Dear [Name of Slot Director]:
It has come to my attention that you have the [name of slot machine] as a part of your inventory or that you are planning to have that machine as a part of your inventory. According to Frank Legato of Strictly Slots magazine the range of possible paybacks is [give "Payback % Range"].
I am asking you to please use the highest possible payback on that machine. I think you will find that with more wins the players will in fact play longer at the machines, be more satisfied with their play, and keep coming back for more because they are getting a good deal at your casino. You can even advertise that you are giving the highest payback possible on these machines [give highest payback percentage] and that will make players know that you are giving them the best machine possible.
I really hope you follow my suggestion and let me know. If you do, I will be there to play as a loyal customer!
Yours truly,
Your Name
Okay, this is something new and unheard of. By using Frank Legato’s slot machine descriptions the citizens of the slot machine world, can now rise up and ask what we want – the best payouts on the machines!
And that is why I am a dolt because I never realized what this information could be used for. Thank you Frank!
Frank Scoblete, #1 best-selling gaming author, is director of Golden Touch advantage-play seminars in dice-control and blackjack. Websites: www.goldentouchcraps.com and www.scoblete.com. Recent books: The Virgin Kiss!, Golden Touch Dice Control Revolution! and Golden Touch Blackjack Revolution! Join Frank at The World Casino Championships in August of 2009 in fabulous Las Vegas. Go to: http://www.goldentouchcraps.com/wcc_2009.shtml for more information. To order Frank's products or free brochure, call 1-800-944-0406.
" Black Chip" Specials for Dice Control and Blackjack Seminars in 2009
Click here for upcoming courses...
As a preferred client of Golden Touch Craps, we are offering a
VERY SPECIAL BLACK CHIP DISCOUNT for our 2009 seminars in blackjack and craps.
You must call and give us a deposit to reserve your seat by February 10st 2009
to get these special discounts. You won't get a lower price than these for our 2009 courses. Note: multiple offers cannot be combined.
New students will receive a 20% discount off the tuition of either seminar
Refresher course in craps will receive a 10% discount off the tuition of the craps seminar
Speed Count Blackjack students will receive a 20% discount off the price of the seminar
Enroll in both the Craps and Speed Count seminars and receive a 25% discount off each seminar.
If you have been thinking about enrolling in our seminars, now is the time! Learn the most comprehensive way to control the dice and beat the game of craps. At our Speed Count seminar you will learn the easiest way to beat the game of blackjack consistently. Check out our websites www.GoldenTouchCraps.com and www.GoldenTouchBlackjack.com for a complete description on the course structure. All you have to do is give us a call and either pay for the seminar in full or give us a 50% deposit to reserve your seat.
To sign up, Call TOLL FREE: 1-866-SET-DICE or 1-800-944-0406
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